长江期货养殖产业周报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - Period - Spot End: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - Supply End: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - Demand End: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - Cost End: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - Weekly Summary: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - Period - Spot End: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - Supply End: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - Demand End: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - Weekly Summary: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - Period - Spot End: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - Supply End: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - Demand End: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - Weekly Summary: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - Weekly Market Review: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - Fundamental Data Review: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - Weekly Market Review: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - Fundamental Data Review: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - Weekly Market Review: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - Fundamental Data Review: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - Key Data Tracking: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].