Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC market is expected to face downward pressure due to the shift in supply - demand expectations, resulting in a weak reality and weak expectation scenario. With the cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC powder from April 1st, far - month exports are likely to decline. Additionally, insufficient upstream production cuts and the off - season for domestic demand have led to continuous inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. Therefore, a bearish approach is recommended until there is an unexpected reduction in supply [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - Price Movement: This week, PVC prices were under pressure and declined. After a sharp gap - down opening at 4760 on Monday, it briefly hit the daily limit down at 4576, then rebounded with the sector, reaching a weekly high of 4949 on Tuesday before falling again. It ended at 4652, with an amplitude of 373 points between 4576 - 4949 [3][9]. - Funding: As of Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.02 million lots, at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - Basis and Spread: As of Friday, the V05 basis was 223 yuan/ton, strengthening from the previous low. The V5 - 9 spread was 120 yuan/ton. On Monday, affected by export tariff news, the V5 - 9 spread briefly strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton. Considering the short - term front - loading of export demand, a positive spread arbitrage for the V5 - 9 contracts is advisable [15][17]. - Valuation: This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 662 yuan/ton, up significantly from the low of - 1102 yuan/ton on December 12th; ethylene - based PVC gross profit was - 138 yuan/ton, up from - 520 yuan/ton on December 12th. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali integrated profit was - 839 yuan/ton (at a low level), and Northwest China's was 743 yuan/ton (at a neutral level). Recently, caustic soda spot prices have been falling, and the comprehensive cost of Shandong's chlor - alkali industry has decreased. In January 2026, industrial electricity prices in Western Inner Mongolia decreased to 0.65 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), while in Shandong, it increased to 0.44 yuan/ton (up 0.06 month - on - month) [20][27]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, PVC production was 490,000 tons (down 0.1 from last week), with a capacity utilization rate of 80% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Next week, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Only Qinzhou Huayi and Wanhua Fujian have maintenance plans in January [30]. - Domestic Demand: This week, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The operating rates of pipes and profiles were weak, while the film operating rate was at the highest level in the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year change in apparent consumption was - 1.0%, with November's apparent consumption at 1.82 million tons (up 2.7% year - on - year). The real estate market is still in an adjustment period, with new construction, completion, and sales areas showing increasing declines in 2025. The real estate transaction area is at a low level, and in November 2025, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [32][35]. - External Demand: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, FOB ethylene, calcium carbide, and CFR Southeast Asia prices increased by 40, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively this week. Asian prices are strong, but some traders are waiting and watching due to concerns about rising freight costs. From January to November 2025, PVC exports were 3.51 million tons (up 1.12 million tons year - on - year, a cumulative increase of 47%), with 275,000 tons exported in November (up 30% year - on - year). This week, the sample export orders of PVC producers were 62,200 tons, indicating significant front - loading of exports [40][45]. - Inventory: As of Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (up 13,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory was 540,000 tons, and the large - sample social inventory was 1.14 million tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.455 million tons (up 13,000 week - on - week, up 460,000 year - on - year), rising for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, social inventory is expected to reach 1.18 million tons by the end of January [47][50]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Market Review - Price and Profit: The caustic soda market has seen five consecutive weeks of decline. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali gross profit was 266 yuan/ton, and the liquid chlorine price was 350 yuan/ton [59]. - Supply and Demand: This week, caustic soda production was 850,000 tons (up 4000 week - on - week), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The capacity utilization rate was 87%, at a high level compared to the same period, and is expected to rise to 88% next week. From January to October 2025, caustic soda exports were 3.73 million tons (a cumulative increase of 37% year - on - year). This week, the in - plant inventory of liquid caustic soda was 510,000 tons (up 17,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks to the highest level in the same period [61][67]. 4. Strategies - Single - side Trading: Adopt a bearish approach. Focus on the 4650 - 4950 yuan/ton range for the V2605 contract [5]. - Hedging: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial clients can sell on rallies [5]. - Arbitrage: Take advantage of the short - term support for near - month prices due to front - loaded exports and conduct positive spread arbitrage between contracts [5].
PVC周报：供需预期转变，盘面承压下行-20260119
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-01-19 05:13