中辉黑色观点-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): Cautiously bullish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferromanganese (MnSi): Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicon Iron (SiFe): Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Mid - term, it will operate within a range. Rebar demand rebounds month - on - month, with production and inventory remaining largely flat. Hot - rolled coil production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with inventory slightly decreasing but at a high absolute level and slow destocking speed [1][3][4] - Iron Ore: The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] - Coking Coal: The supply from previously shut - down coal mines increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. For silicon iron, the supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and attention should be paid to the pricing of steel mills [1][17] 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: Demand rebounds month - on - month, production and inventory are mostly unchanged. Current profits are acceptable, but due to the off - season of demand, the expectation of production increase is not strong. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and high raw material prices suppress the enthusiasm of steel mills to replenish inventory [1][4] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory slightly decreases, but the absolute level is high, and the destocking speed is slow. The spot is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around the flat - water level [1][4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to operate within a range in the medium term. In the short term, due to the steel mill accident, there may be an expectation of stricter safety production, bringing phased boosts [1][5] Iron Ore Variety Views - The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bearish. The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases, and the supply - demand situation weakens month - on - month [1][7] Coke Variety Views - After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens due to rising raw coal prices. In the short term, the production enthusiasm is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory replenishment improves slightly, mainly purchasing as needed. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][11] Coking Coal Variety Views - Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory, with good destocking of mine inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][15] Ferroalloys Variety Views - Ferromanganese: The supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5870 - 5940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5920 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [1][17] - Silicon Iron: The supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills [1][17] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both ferromanganese and silicon iron are expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][18]