Guoyuan Securities·2026-01-19 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for certain segments within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to experience low growth in 2026, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 34.75 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. Passenger vehicle sales are anticipated to grow by 0.5%, while commercial vehicle sales are expected to rise by 4.7%. The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 19 million units, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, highlighting its role as a key growth driver [3][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and GDP growth targets in influencing vehicle sales, particularly in the passenger vehicle segment. The report suggests that sustained policy support is crucial for maintaining sales momentum [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review (January 10-16, 2026) - The automotive sector index increased by 0.49%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.06 percentage points. The automotive services sector saw the highest gains, with a 4.51% increase [12][15]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking (January 10-16, 2026) - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from January 1-11 totaled 328,000 units, a 32% decrease year-on-year. Wholesale figures showed a similar trend, with 381,000 units sold, down 40% year-on-year. The NEV market also faced declines, with retail sales of 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year [20][21]. 3. Industry News (January 10-16, 2026) - Key developments include partnerships for advanced driving technologies and initiatives to promote autonomous vehicle testing in regions like Hong Kong. Additionally, the report highlights the ongoing negotiations between China and the EU regarding electric vehicle trade, which could stabilize market conditions [25][28][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities within the automotive sector, particularly high-growth companies and regions, as well as the recovery of commercial vehicles and advancements in automotive technology [4].