甲醇周报：需求依旧偏弱，未来关注进口-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week. The supply side failed to provide support, downstream demand remained weak, and the market showed a regional differentiation trend. In the future, the expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [6][8][9] - The methanol price may fluctuate within a range in the future, and a short straddle strategy can be considered [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week [6][12] - Spot: The port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 - 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranged from 1,830 - 1,838 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,105 - 2,118 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34% [15] - Downstream: The overall downstream was stable but weak. The MTO device in Zhejiang Xingxing stopped, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, a decrease of 13.22 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [19][20] - Inventory: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 0.71% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous period. The port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.63% [22][25] - Profit: Last week, the profits of various methanol production processes were squeezed to different degrees. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 251.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 17.79%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 196.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.01% [28] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of domestic methanol device overhauls may be more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.87%, a decrease from last week [31] - Downstream demand: The MTO device will operate stably this week, and the average weekly start - up rate will decline. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rate of chlorides may decline [32][33] - Inventory: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises this week will be 444,100 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase this week [33] - Price trend: The expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [33]