Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Asset Allocation: In the equity market, Chinese stocks have high return odds, while US stocks need to be carefully differentiated, and Japanese stocks offer short - term event - driven opportunities. In the fixed - income market, the Chinese bond market will likely fluctuate, and the US bond market will be volatile. In commodities and foreign exchange, crude oil will be highly volatile, the value of gold will be prominent, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the equilibrium level with a mild appreciation basis [1]. - Exchange Rates: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival. The appreciation space depends on the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation of the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Stock Index Futures: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is only a slowdown in rhythm, not a trend reversal. It is expected to strengthen again after the adjustment [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market may need new catalysts to continue rising. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [5][6]. - Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: There is support on the demand side before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, but beware of the impact on downstream demand. Investors can look for structural long - making opportunities [7][8]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption. In the medium - term, polysilicon prices may decline, but industrial silicon has support at the bottom [8][10][11]. - Copper: The copper price is affected by multiple events. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations and avoid new positions above 100,000 yuan [11][14]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - Zinc: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - Tin: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - Lead: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - Oils: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - Asphalt: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32][35]. - Gold and Silver: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. - Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The current situation is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - LPG: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - PTA - PX: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - PP: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - PE: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - Rubber: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - Urea: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - Propylene: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. - Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - Iron Ore: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - Cotton: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - Sugar: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - Eggs: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - Apples: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - Red Dates: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - Logs: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Market News: The US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries; China adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages; China's electricity consumption in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh; the CSRC emphasizes market stability [1]. - Core Logic: Five core logic lines for asset allocation are proposed, covering the Fed's policy, geopolitics, global growth sources, social vulnerability, and policy cycle differences [1]. - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - Stock Index Futures: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is temporary, and it is expected to strengthen again [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the medium - term and wait in the short - term [5][6]. Commodities - New Energy - Carbonate Lithium: The price dropped last week, but the demand is supported before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals are stable [7]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon fluctuates widely, and polysilicon focuses on inventory reduction. Pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption [8][10]. - Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price dropped last week due to multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [11][14]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - Zinc: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - Tin: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - Lead: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - Oils: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - Asphalt: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32]. - Gold and Silver: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp price dropped, and the offset paper futures are bearish. It is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - LPG: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - PTA - PX: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - PP: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - PE: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - Rubber: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - Urea: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - Propylene: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - Iron Ore: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - Cotton: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - Sugar: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - Eggs: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - Apples: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - Red Dates: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - Logs: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75].
金融期货早评-20260119
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-19 05:10