有色金属周报：美暂缓加征关键矿产关税，有色板块冲高回落-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel. It points out that for copper, short - term price may be affected by policy and market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains unchanged; zinc price is mainly affected by the "catch - up" logic and is recommended for high - selling and low - buying; nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with short - term bullish sentiment but limited by inventory accumulation [9][90][195]. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing price monitoring shows that the US dollar index is 99.4 with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.23%, and an annual increase of 1.12%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.969 with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and an annual decrease of 0.29%. Different non - ferrous metals have different price changes, such as industrial silicon at 8,605 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.43%, a weekly decrease of 1.26%, and an annual decrease of 2.88% [7]. 02. Copper (CU) - Logic and Strategy: Macro factors are bearish, raw material factors are bullish, smelting and demand factors are neutral, and inventory is bearish. The investment view is bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [9]. - Main Data: The closing price of SHFE copper is 100,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. The electrolytic copper production is 110.3 million tons, an increase of 1.1% from last week [10]. - Macro and Industry Events: China's export and import data in December 2025 exceeded expectations. The central bank launched a series of policies, and the US CPI data was stable. Trump decided not to impose new tariffs on key minerals for the time being [11][12]. - Market Review: The copper price rose first and then fell, with the SHFE copper falling 0.6% and LME copper falling 0.2% [16]. - Spot Premium: The domestic spot premium of flat - copper widened slightly, the SHFE copper term structure remained in a C - structure, and the LME copper spot premium widened [24][25]. - Smelting: The copper ore port inventory increased to 69.0 million tons, the spot processing fee decreased slightly to - 46.6 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit of using spot copper ore expanded the loss while that of using long - term contract copper ore increased [37]. - Copper Output: SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January to decrease by 1.45 million tons month - on - month, with a decrease of 1.23%, and increase by 15.63 million tons year - on - year, with an increase of 14.78% [41]. - Copper Import and Export: The spot import loss of copper widened, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In November, the refined copper import decreased while the export increased significantly [47][52]. - Recycled Copper: The copper scrap price difference remained high, the electrolytic copper rod production rate increased, and the recycled copper rod production rate remained low [58]. - Copper Product Production Rate: The copper product production rate declined [60]. - Position Volume: The SHFE copper position volume remained high, and the short - term squeeze risk was low [68]. - Copper Inventory: The global visible copper inventory continued to increase [77]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - Logic and Strategy: Macro factors are slightly positive, raw material and smelting factors are neutral, demand factors are negative, and inventory is neutral. The investment view is that the zinc price fluctuates, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low [90]. - Main Data: The closing price of the LME zinc main contract is 3,314.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.11% from last week. The SHFE zinc main contract is 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% from last week [91]. - Market Review: The zinc price rose due to good market sentiment, with the SHFE zinc rising 3.25% as of January 16 [92]. - Premium: The domestic premium of zinc declined [95]. - Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained stable at the bottom [107]. - Export Window: The export window of refined zinc was closed [124]. - Downstream Production Rate: The downstream production rate in the off - season was weak [133]. - Terminal Demand: Infrastructure investment showed a mixed trend, real estate data continued to decline, the automobile and home appliance industries showed growth [162][163][173][182]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc stabilized [183]. 04. Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Logic and Strategy: Macro factors are neutral, raw material factors are slightly positive, smelting and demand factors are neutral, and inventory is slightly negative. The investment view is that the price will fluctuate at a high level, suggesting short - term long on dips and not chasing highs [195]. - Main Data: The closing price of the LME nickel main contract is 17,578 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from last week. The SHFE nickel main contract is 141,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% from last week [199]. - Recent News: Indonesia's nickel ore production target in 2026 is about 260 million wet tons, and Vale Indonesia has obtained the 2026 mining quota [202]. - Raw Material: The nickel ore import decreased seasonally, the port inventory continued to decline, the domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production decreased, the Indonesian intermediate product production increased, and the refined nickel production increased [208][216][221][231]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January increased significantly. The social inventory continued to decline, the import decreased, and the export increased slightly [241][246][257]. - Terminal Demand: The demand side of stainless steel remained weak, the ternary precursor production decreased, and the new energy vehicle sales continued to grow [263][285]. - Nickel Inventory: The global nickel inventory continued to increase [286].