烧碱周报：需求不及预期，期现双双走弱-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating," indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for caustic soda fails to meet expectations, and both the futures and spot markets are weak. The supply side shows a slight increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side is affected by factors such as the decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is rising, and the cost - profit situation is complex. Short - term market trends are expected to be mainly oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a 0.1% week - on - week increase [3]. - Demand: It is neutral. Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 3.01% to 88.43%, and the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased by 0.72% to 60.09% [3]. - Inventory: It is bearish. The factory inventory of enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased by 3.41% week - on - week to 512,100 tons (wet tons), and the national caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio increased by 0.66% to 28.89%. There were regional differences in inventory changes [3]. - Basis: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 56, and the futures price is at a premium [3]. - Profit: It is bearish. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali declined. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 250 yuan/ton [3]. - Valuation: It is bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - Macroeconomic Policy: It is neutral. There is currently no relevant policy [3]. - Investment View: It is oscillating. The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, both the futures and spot prices in Shandong declined. The futures price continued to fall and hit a new low. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine increased, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali turned positive, maintenance was less, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the off - season, downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak. The market is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Caustic Soda - Electricity Price: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [33]. - Upstream Production: The production capacity utilization rate remains high, and inventory is being depleted [35]. - Production in Main Producing Areas: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38]. - Comprehensive Chlor - Alkali Profit: It has decreased [39]. - Downstream Price: The price of alumina has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42]. - Alumina: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports has also increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there is no significant reduction in production. Bauxite supply is in surplus [54]. - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum demand has entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The printing and dyeing industry is weak, and short - term recovery is difficult [64]. - Downstream of Liquid Chlorine: The start - up rate has rebounded [72].