天然橡胶周报：市场情绪扰动，橡胶宽幅波动-20260119

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Market sentiment has disturbed the rubber market, leading to wide - range fluctuations. The upstream raw material prices are rising due to factory restocking and improved EU orders, but the social inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate and the demand is weak. The rubber market is expected to follow the broader commodity market's fluctuations passively. Currently, the raw material prices provide strong support, the mid - stream inventory is increasing, the downstream demand may pick up in the short term, but the futures - spot price difference has widened again, and the commodity market sentiment has cooled down, so the rubber market will fluctuate widely [3][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. The domestic production areas are in the off - season. In Thailand, rainfall has decreased, and it has entered the high - yield tapping season. Some Thai factories need to replenish the stock of smoked sheets, leading to a diversion of latex and rising purchase prices. In Vietnam, the raw material output is seasonally decreasing, and some factories are stocking up in advance, pushing up the raw material prices [3] - Demand: Bullish. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. However, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise only slightly in the next period. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' foreign trade orders have increased, while some all - steel tire enterprises control production to limit the increase in inventory [3] - Inventory: Bearish. As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase. The dark rubber and light rubber inventories also increased. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - Basis/Spread: Bearish. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the RU - NR spread widened [3] - Profit: Neutral. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber narrowed, and the profit analysis of Hainan concentrated latex was suspended due to the off - season in the domestic production area [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The absolute price is at a medium - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - External Factors: Neutral. The sentiment in the commodity market has changed, and the previous popular varieties have fallen from high levels. The international geopolitical situation has also affected market risk appetite [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on NR and short on RU [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: This week, rubber prices first rose and then fell. As of January 16, the RU main contract closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 195 yuan/ton (- 1.22%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,745 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 205 yuan/ton (- 1.58%) [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - Position on the Market: The position of the RU2505 contract increased. RU positions increased while NR positions decreased. The RU - NR spread widened, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread remained stable [16][23][31] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: The rainfall in southern Thailand has decreased [37] - Main Producing Countries' Output: In November, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 10.26 million tons (- 0.24%) [57] - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In the first 11 months, the cumulative exports of ANRPC were 8.84 million tons (+ 0.73%) [70] - China's Imports: From January to November, China imported 5.8716 million tons of natural rubber (+ 16.98%). In December 2025, China imported 953,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an 18.4% increase year - on - year. In 2025, the total import was 8.525 million tons, a 16.7% increase year - on - year. In November 2025, the import of natural rubber was 643,600 tons, a 25.98% increase month - on - month and a 14.69% increase year - on - year [82][89] - Mid - stream Inventory: The domestic social inventory of natural rubber continued to increase. As of January 11, 2026, the social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase month - on - month. The inventory in Qingdao also increased [106] - Downstream Tire Demand: The factory operating rate recovered. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a 7.52 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 5.21 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, an 8.75 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 5.03 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. However, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise only slightly in the next period [113] - Downstream Tire Inventory: The available days of tire inventory in Shandong increased [114] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In December, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [130] - Tire Exports: From January to November, tire exports were 8.83 million tons (+ 3.7%), but the cumulative growth rate narrowed [131]