【玻璃纯碱（FG&SA）】：供需平淡，价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bullish [4] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the supply and demand of glass and soda ash are flat, and prices are fluctuating. Policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is realized. Soda ash supply and demand are average. [41] - Recommended strategy: Short - term long for glass or inter - month reverse arbitrage [41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 150700 tons, up 0.45% from the 8th. Industry start - up rate is 71.38%, unchanged from the 8th; capacity utilization is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 8th [4] - Demand: Neutral, with support. Recent shipments of original film enterprises are good, but terminal demand support is limited [4] - Inventory: Bullish, with inventory reduction. Total enterprise inventory is 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 1.348 million heavy boxes, or 2.37% month - on - month, up 27.04% year - on - year. Inventory days are 24.1 days, 1.5 days less than the previous period [4] - Basis/spread: Neutral, basis fluctuates strongly this week; 01 - 05 spread fluctuates lower [4] - Valuation: Neutral, valuation has been significantly repaired [4] - Macro and policy: Bullish, policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year [4] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Go long on dips; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage [4] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with significant supply increase. This week's production is 775300 tons, up 21700 tons, or 2.88% month - on - month. Middle - term supply surplus pressure remains [5] - Demand: Neutral, overall demand is okay, but direct demand is weak in the short term [5] - Inventory: Bearish, inventory increases slightly. Total manufacturer inventory is 157500 tons, up 2300 tons, or 0.15% from last Thursday, up 10.06% year - on - year [5] - Basis/spread: Neutral, basis fluctuates and rebounds this week; 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [5] - Valuation: Bearish, valuation is average [5] - Macro and policy: Bullish, policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and market sentiment changes quickly [5] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price drops. The main contract closes at 1103 (- 41), and the Shahe spot price is 936 (- 8) [7] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuates and drops. The main contract closes at 1192 (- 36), and the Shahe spot price is 1143 (- 56) [13] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, basis fluctuates lower - Glass: 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, basis fluctuates lower [23] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable. Daily output is 150700 tons, up 0.45% from the 8th. Industry start - up rate is 71.38%, unchanged from the 8th; capacity utilization is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 8th. Production profit improves slightly [26] - Demand: Supported. Downstream deep - processing orders improve, but real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [30] - Inventory: Decreases. Total enterprise inventory is 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 1.348 million heavy boxes, or 2.37% month - on - month, up 27.04% year - on - year. Inventory days are 24.1 days, 1.5 days less than the previous period [31] Soda Ash - Supply: At a high level. Supply increases significantly. This week's production is 775300 tons, up 21700 tons, or 2.88% month - on - month. Alkali plant profit decreases [34] - Demand: Weak. Direct demand weakens marginally in the short term. Inventory increases slightly [38]