PVC周报：宏观情绪消退，盘面价格回落-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, with less global PVC production and capacity gradually exiting, it is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has declined. The PVC market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, cost, and other factors. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, there is an upward trend [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, the oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. The overall capacity utilization rate is 79.63%, a decrease of 0.04% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year. The maintenance loss this week is 3.585 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous period [3]. - Demand: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The export volume in November 2025 was 27.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64% [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. The social inventory increased by 2.70% month - on - month to 114.41 tons, and the production enterprise's factory inventory days decreased by 3.70% month - on - month [3]. - Basis: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 183 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: Bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes are different. The average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 29 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 54 yuan/ton month - on - month [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3]. - Macro Policy: Neutral. The macro sentiment has temporarily receded [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy on dips; no arbitrage strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Price Trend: The PVC powder market fluctuated strongly in the middle of the week and declined at the weekend. The futures price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand continued to decline. There may be a rush to export due to tariff policy changes [6]. - Price Spread: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production in Main Production Areas: After the maintenance ended, the production in the northwest was high [35]. - Domestic Inventory: Factory inventory increased, and social inventory decreased [43]. - Demand Side: Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in the start - up rates of various downstream industries [64]. - Export: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There may be a rush to export due to the cancellation of export subsidies in April. India's policies have made the export order - receiving situation good, and there is still great potential for export growth in the future [77][79][85].