原油周报（SC）：中东局势不确定性扰动，国际油价波动加剧-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains in a relatively loose pattern. However, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances, and oil prices may still maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply (Medium - Long Term) - EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026, expecting 10,616 million barrels per day in 2025, a rise of 299 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - In November, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 4.5 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3] 3.1.2 Demand (Medium - Long Term) - EIA raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 1.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.09 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] - OPEC kept its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with a growth rate of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, the same as the November forecast [3] - IEA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 0.83 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.042 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] 3.1.3 Inventory (Short Term) - In the week ending January 9, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase, against an expected decrease of 1.702 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.832 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma were 0.745 million barrels, compared to 0.728 million barrels in the previous week [3] - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous 7.702 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 0.029 million barrels (expected 0.512 million barrels, previous 5.594 million barrels), and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.745 million barrels (previous 0.672 million barrels) [3] 3.1.4 Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term) - OPEC+ reaffirmed in the January meeting to maintain stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the previously planned production increase measures. The meeting lasted about 10 minutes and did not cover the recent Venezuelan geopolitical event [3] - A U.S. government official said that the U.S. had completed the sale of the first batch of Venezuelan oil, with a transaction value of $500 million, and more oil would be sold in the coming days and weeks [3] 3.1.5 Geopolitics (Short Term) - Trump postponed the decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran. Military options are still on the table, but the uncertainty has significantly increased. Advisors told Trump that if a large - scale strike is carried out, the U.S. needs to deploy more military forces in the Middle East [3] - On January 15, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals and entities and multiple foreign companies associated with Iran. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larryjani was included in the sanctions list [3] 3.1.6 Macro - finance (Short Term) - U.S. non - farm payroll data showed that overall inflation in December 2025 met expectations, and core inflation was slightly lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of the overall CPI was 2.7%, the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.3% as expected; the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 2.6% (expected 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.2% (expected 0.3%) [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 20.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 0.9% [3] 3.1.7 Investment View and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The oil price is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Market Review - This week, oil prices fluctuated widely, rising first and then falling, mainly trading around the U.S. military strike on Iran event. As Trump postponed the decision on whether to strike Iran, oil prices dropped from their highs. As of January 16, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $59.22 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.44 per barrel (+0.75%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $64.20 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.12 per barrel (+1.87%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 438.8 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.1 yuan per barrel (+1.41%) [6] 3.2.2 Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads - Near - month spreads and internal - external spreads declined [9] 3.2.3 Crack Spreads - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, and jet fuel crack spreads also declined [27][38] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Production - In November 2025, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.444 million barrels per day from October (EIA data) [62] - In November 2025, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.045 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3][62] - As of the week ending January 9, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.058 million barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.753 million barrels per day from the previous week; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [86] - As of the week ending January 16, the total number of active U.S. drilling rigs was 544, compared to 546 in the previous week [86] 3.3.2 Inventory - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.745 million barrels [87] - Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [95] 3.3.3 Demand - In the U.S., implied gasoline and diesel demand increased, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level. Refinery operating rates rose 0.60% to 95.30%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 17.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.133 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0264 million barrels per day; distillate implied demand was 5.5201 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.7972 million barrels per day [108][117] - In China, refinery capacity utilization rates slightly declined. In the third week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of China's independent refined oil refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 61.01%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decline from the previous week. The profit margin of refineries narrowed, and the operating loads of independent refineries in regions such as Shandong decreased [118][119] 3.3.4 Macro - finance - U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [142] 3.3.5 CFTC Positions - Speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [152]