碳酸锂周报：累库趋势延续，价格上方承压-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 710 tons to 24,510 tons week - on - week, and December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production. Enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in November was about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cost of some lithium carbonate manufacturers using imported lithium ore is inverted. [5][6] - Demand side: The overall production schedule in January is expected to decline month - on - month, while that of large battery cell manufacturers increased by 2% in November. In December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The combined export was 32.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%. The sales volume was 199.3GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.1% and a year - on - year increase of 57.5%. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new - energy vehicle market. [6] - Inventory: This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight accumulation. Factory inventory decreased by 476 tons, market inventory decreased by 1,593 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,098 tons. [6] - Strategy: Supply is affected by mine production and imports, and demand is strong but may decline in January. There is a risk of Yichun mining license, and cost is rising. It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply, and prices will continue to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views - Supply: Production decreased last week but increased in December. Mines in some areas are affected, and imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate have different trends. The cost of some manufacturers is under pressure. [5] - Demand: Production schedules vary in different months. Battery output, export, and sales are growing, and policies support new - energy vehicle sales. [6] - Inventory: There is a slight accumulation of inventory with different changes in factory, market, and futures inventories. [6] - Strategy Suggestion: Considering supply, demand, and cost factors, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun mining end disturbances. [6] 3.2. Key Data Tracking - Price Data: There are data on the spot price of lithium carbonate, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the average price of lithium concentrate. [8][16][18] - Production Data: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, the production of different raw - material - based lithium carbonate in December 2024, the production of power and other batteries, and the production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [9][11][20][21] - Inventory Data: There are data on the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including factory inventory. [13][16] - Import Data: There are data on the import volume of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium spodumene. [5][35][38] - Other Data: There are data on the difference between domestic power - battery output and installed capacity, and the prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [23][37][39]