石化行业周报：受地缘影响，原油周内计价风险溢价

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; US crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][24] Summary by Sections Upstream - If geopolitical factors lead to a future oil premium, it will benefit upstream targets [2] Midstream (Refining) - An improvement in demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity will benefit midstream refining [2] Polyester Filament - Attention on the progress of PTA's internal competition and PX profit recovery; if successful, it will benefit polyester filament [2] Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, with increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] Polyester Market - The latest data shows stable prices for polyester filament, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6550, 7750, and 6800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton [15][21] Olefins Market - The sample PE price was 6920 CNY/ton, up 0.29% from last week, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from the previous week [26]