Guoyuan Securities·2026-01-19 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a phase of low growth, with a focus on high-quality development opportunities. Key areas of interest include high-growth automotive companies and structural opportunities within the supply chain, particularly in commercial vehicles and automotive technology [4][34]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) forecasts that total vehicle sales in China will reach 34.75 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 1%. Passenger vehicle sales are expected to grow by 0.5%, while commercial vehicle sales are projected to increase by 4.7% [3][35]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are anticipated to play a crucial role in driving industry growth, with expected sales of 19 million units in 2026, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 15.2% [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review (January 10-16, 2026) - The automotive sector index increased by 0.49%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.06 percentage points. The automotive services sector saw the highest growth at 4.51% [12][15]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking (January 10-16, 2026) - From January 1-11, 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China totaled 328,000 units, a 32% decrease year-on-year. Wholesale figures were 381,000 units, down 40% year-on-year [20][21]. 3. Industry News (January 10-16, 2026) - Significant developments include partnerships for advanced driving technologies and the introduction of new vehicle models by major manufacturers, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [25][29][31]. 4. Key Manufacturer Sales Rankings (2025) - BYD led the passenger vehicle market with sales of 4.55 million units, followed by Geely and Chery. In the NEV segment, BYD also dominated with a market share of 29.7% [23][24]. 5. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and industry governance in sustaining growth. The focus will be on maintaining competitive advantages in electric and intelligent vehicle technologies [34][36].