每周投资策略-20260119

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The MSCI ACWI global index closed at 1,038.33, with a weekly change of 0.3% and a yearly change of 22.4% [6] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index increased by 2.2% over the week and has a yearly change of 39.2% [6] - The US market saw the Dow Jones decrease by 0.3% weekly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively [6] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a four-month high, reflecting a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts [7] - The yield on US investment-grade bonds is at 4.87%, with a weekly change of 3 basis points [7] - Emerging market bonds showed a yield of 5.94%, with a 0 basis point change over the week [7] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Performance - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.3% over the week, while the Euro/USD decreased by 0.3% [8] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.5% to $59.44, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.2% to $64.13 [8] - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.1% to $4,595.40, reflecting a strong performance in the precious metals sector [8] Group 4: Japan Market Focus - The potential for early elections in Japan could benefit the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which may lead to economic growth [28][30] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may pressure the yen and increase bond yields, with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points by April [36] - Companies like Kioxia and Kajima Construction are expected to benefit from a strong government, particularly in the technology and nuclear sectors [39] Group 5: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is projected to slightly decline in 2026, with companies like 99 Speedmart and Gamuda being highlighted as safe investments in emerging markets [48][50]