国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gold is affected by the resurgence of risk aversion, while silver is influenced by tariff expectation fluctuations. Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines. Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling. Aluminum is grinding at a high level, and alumina is in a resonant decline. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation. Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. Key Points by Commodity Gold and Silver - Core view: Gold is affected by risk aversion, and silver by tariff expectations [2]. - Market data: For gold, the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closed at 1,035.20 yuan with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session price rose 0.04%. The Comex gold 2602 closed at 4,620.50 dollars with a 0.29% decline. The SPDR gold ETF increased its position by 1 ton. For silver, the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closed at 22,713 yuan with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session price rose 1.40%. The Comex silver 2602 closed at 92.210 dollars with a 1.05% decline. The SLV silver ETF reduced its position by 180 tons [4]. - News: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries from February 1st, and the EU may counter - impose tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [4]. Copper - Core view: Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,770 yuan with a 1.75% decline, and the night - session price rose 2.87%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,809 dollars with a 2.59% decline. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,300 tons, and that of LME copper increased by 2,450 tons [7]. - News: The production of Codelco in November decreased by 3% year - on - year. The US government may lift the mining ban in Minnesota. Codelco plans to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine. The State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase [7][9]. Zinc - Core view: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,750 yuan with a 1.36% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,207.5 dollars with a 3.20% decline. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 252 tons, and that of LME zinc decreased by 175 tons [10]. - News: Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a preferential tariff rate. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [11]. Lead - Core view: The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan with a 0.43% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,037.5 dollars with a 2.81% decline. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 1,191 tons, and that of LME lead decreased by 5,050 tons [13]. - News: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump postponed the decision to use force against Iran [14]. Tin - Core view: Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan with a 6.41% decline, and the night - session price fell 8.42%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,708 dollars with a 9.60% decline. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 64 tons, and that of LME tin increased by 10 tons [17]. - News: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries, and France may use EU anti - coercion tools [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Aluminum is grinding at a high level, alumina is in a resonant decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,925 yuan with a 450 - yuan decline. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 3,129 dollars with a 43 - dollar decline. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan with a 38 - yuan decline. The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 22,735 yuan with a 420 - yuan decline [20]. - News: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [2]. - Market data: No specific price data provided. - News: China will expand both exports and imports during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. US - led coalition fighter jets flew over the conflict area in northern Syria [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core view: Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. - Market data: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,350 yuan with a 5,400 - yuan decline. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan with a 140 - yuan decline. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan [26]. - News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [26][27].