2025年12月债市托管数据点评：上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Economic recovery is accelerating, inflation is rising, and the bond market's overall leverage ratio has increased. The report also analyzes the changes in bond custody volume and the behavior of different institutions in the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation - In December, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 302.571 billion yuan, showing a decline in the incremental increase compared to the previous month. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 204.504 billion yuan, while that of CCDC increased by 507.075 billion yuan, both with a slowdown in the incremental increase [2][3]. Bond Types - Interest - bearing bonds contributed the main increment in December. The custody volume of interest - bearing bonds was 123.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 695.865 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.88 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 154.092 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.69 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 622.378 billion yuan [4]. Institutions - Commercial banks were the main purchasers of bonds. Their custody volume was 94.40 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 256.262 billion yuan. Securities, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions all had a net decrease in custody volume [5]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market rose to 107.14% in December. The leverage ratios of commercial banks and non - bank institutions increased, while that of securities firms decreased [6].