Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in Q3, with an annual growth rate of 5.0%, matching the previous year[1][2] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was 1.6 percentage points, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 0.4 percentage points[8] Industrial Production - In December 2025, industrial output increased by 5.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from November, driven by strong export performance[11][12] - The cumulative industrial value added for 2025 grew by 5.9%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[13] Consumption - Retail sales in December 2025 grew by 0.9%, a decline from 1.3% in November, with an annual growth rate of 3.7%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year[15][17] - The tightening of consumption subsidy policies and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market have negatively impacted consumer confidence[17] Investment - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8%, a decline that accelerated from the previous year's drop of 2.6%[20][26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) fell by 2.2%, with a significant drop of 12.2% in December alone, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[21][26] Outlook for 2026 - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 4.8% in 2026, supported by more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and stabilizing investment[3][10] - The focus will be on accelerating the development of high-tech manufacturing and stabilizing real estate policies to support economic growth[4][10]
2025年四季度宏观数据点评：四季度GDP增速继续下移，顺利完成全年经济增长目标
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2026-01-19 06:54