台积电预计26年Capex高增,千问App领跑AI应用落地
East Money Securities·2026-01-19 07:06

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditure (Capex) to approximately $52-56 billion in 2026, up from $40.9 billion in 2025, reflecting strong demand in the computing and communication chip sectors [7][35]. - The launch of the Qianwen App, which integrates with Alibaba's ecosystem, is set to accelerate AI application deployment, potentially driving high growth in inference computing demand [7][40]. - The report highlights a robust long-term demand for computing power, with a focus on core segments of the computing industry, including optical modules, copper interconnects, switches, and AI applications [3][57]. Summary by Sections Industry Highlights - NVIDIA launched the next-generation AI computing platform, Rubin, which includes six new chips designed to enhance AI performance and efficiency [12]. - TSMC's expansion plans and partnerships with major tech companies like Apple and Google are expected to bolster the AI chip market [35][37]. - The domestic AI industry is entering a new phase of capitalized development, with several companies going public and increasing their market presence [39]. Market Review - The communication sector saw an overall increase, with the index rising by 3.1% over the past two weeks, ranking 14th among 31 sectors [2][48]. - The military communication, 5G, and industrial internet segments led the gains, with increases of 35.2%, 21.1%, and 21.0% respectively [2][52]. - Individual stock performance within the communication sector showed 110 stocks rising and 19 falling, with notable gains from companies like Shijia Technology and Xinke Mobile [2][56]. Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key segments of the computing power industry, including optical modules, copper interconnects, switches, temperature control equipment, and AI applications [3][57].