高频数据跟踪20260119：生产、物价走势均分化

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]