生柴与贸易题材重启，油脂分歧加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The supply outlook is neutral to bearish. Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but high inventory and a lower export reference price have increased palm oil exports. The full - scale auction of imported soybeans on January 13th, with expected delivery in March, has alleviated the short - term soybean shortage. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed will drop significantly before March 1st, and Australian rapeseed is also expected to enter commercial crushing [3]. - Demand: The demand outlook is neutral. Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has not yet picked up, and the news of Indonesia delaying B50 is bearish for palm oil's far - month prices. The overall US biodiesel quota is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, with a more favorable impact on Canadian rapeseed products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a record high since 2019 in December at 3.05 million tons, but the overall situation is not as pessimistic as previously estimated. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy outlook is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn could trigger a rebound in oil prices. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for early March, and Indonesia's B50 may be postponed [3]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for palm oil, go long on soybean oil, and short rapeseed oil on rallies. Palm oil may reach its low point in the first quarter, soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, and rapeseed oil is expected to be bearish before the US biodiesel policy is finalized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Multiple factors contribute to an increase in international palm oil supply, and the short - term shortage of soybeans is alleviated. The reduction in Canadian rapeseed import costs may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills [3]. - Demand: Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has limited impact on oil digestion, and the B50 delay and US biodiesel policy have different impacts on various oil products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory varies between Malaysia and Indonesia, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a de - stocking trend [3]. - Macro and Policy: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are important factors affecting oil prices [3]. - Investment View: Different investment strategies are proposed for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil based on their respective fundamentals [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading involves going long on soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil, while arbitrage strategies include going long on Y and short on OI, P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads and differences, including P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 spreads [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies in Southeast Asia over different time periods are provided [19][21][23]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [31][35][36]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Similar data on Malaysia's palm oil are shown [37][42]. - India's Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread: Information on India's imports of different oils and the international bean - palm spread is provided [43][48]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit are presented [49][51][53]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the progress of soybean planting and harvesting, are provided [60][63][69]. - US and Brazilian Export Situation: Data on the export volumes of the US and Brazil are presented [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Information on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [90]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Data on the export of rapeseed from different origins, import profit, and domestic arrival volume are presented [91][93]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Information on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].