美股周观点：存在波折-20260119

Market Overview - Developed and emerging markets continued to rise, with emerging markets leading at 2.2% and developed markets up 0.1% [1] - In the U.S. stock market, small-cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 led gains with a 2.2% increase, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4%, and the Dow Jones dropped by 0.3% [1] - The S&P 500 constituents saw a 55% increase in stock prices, with notable gains from companies like Moderna, AMD, and Jabil [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation showed signs of cooling, with December CPI meeting market expectations; core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% [1] - The housing inflation pressure is significantly easing, with December housing inflation rising by 0.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase dropping from 3.3% to 3.2% [1] - The PPI for November rose to 3% year-on-year, driven by energy costs, indicating a rebound in wholesale inflation pressure, although core PPI remained stable [2] Corporate Earnings and Financial Sector - The earnings season for U.S. banks began cautiously, with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting results that met high market expectations, but investment banking revenues fell short [3] - JPMorgan's bond underwriting fees decreased by 2% year-on-year, significantly below the expected growth of 19% [3] - The financial sector faced pressure due to Trump's comments on credit card interest rates, leading to capital outflows from the sector [3] Future Outlook - Short-term outlook for U.S. stocks remains positive, but with potential volatility; significant companies representing 6% of S&P market capitalization will report earnings next week, particularly in healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials [4] - The focus is shifting to the Federal Reserve's leadership amid pressures on Chairman Powell, with expectations that he will not be removed from his position [4] - Upcoming GDP growth data for Q4 2025 is anticipated, with suggestions to avoid cyclical stocks in favor of defensive sectors like healthcare [4] Key Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include U.S. Q4 GDP on January 20, core PCE price index on January 22, and various manufacturing PMIs on January 23 [5]