利率顶部信号初现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market recovered, with relatively stable credit spreads and narrowing spreads for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect and positive factors such as better - than - expected 30 - year Treasury bond issuance and regulatory measures on the A - share market improved bond market sentiment. Although the expected RRR cut did not materialize, the central bank's press conference sent positive signals, and the bond market may continue to repair [2][14]. - The central bank emphasized that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. Considering economic data and market conditions, these measures may be implemented around the Two Sessions in March. The central bank may also flexibly adjust its bond - buying operations in response to bond supply and yield curve changes [3][20]. - Despite potential disturbances to the capital market in the future, the central bank is likely to maintain loose liquidity. The DR001 central rate in January is expected to be around 1.3% - 1.35% [5][49]. - December's financial data was better than expected, but there is still pressure for the subsequent decline in social financing and M2 growth rates. The bond market may face short - term disturbances as interest rates approach previous lows, but there are signs of an interest rate peak, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market [52][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - month RRR cut did not materialize, but the central bank's press conference sent positive signals in terms of policy and bond - buying space - The central bank emphasized that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. External factors do not strongly constrain interest rate cuts, and the reduction of the central bank's re - lending rate creates conditions for interest rate cuts. The RRR cut may be postponed due to concerns about overheating in the capital market [3][20]. - The central bank can tolerate M2 and social financing growth rates being higher than the target to a certain extent and may maintain a loose liquidity environment to support credit. The central bank also elaborated on the significance of Treasury bond trading and may increase the scale and extend the term of bond purchases [4][27]. 3.2 Mismatch between capital injection and leakage caused fluctuations, and the non - implementation of the RRR cut did not hinder capital loosening - In December, the decline in government deposits was lower than expected, resulting in a lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio of 1.6%. The capital remained loose possibly due to abundant non - bank liquidity [32]. - In the first week of January, the excess reserve ratio was estimated to be only 0.9% due to OMO net withdrawal and government bond net payment. External disturbances such as government bond net payment, maturity of repurchase agreements, and North Exchange IPO subscriptions led to a temporary tightening of capital, but the situation eased after the central bank's operations [38]. - In the next month, factors such as tax payments, government bond payments, and cash - withdrawal demand may disrupt the capital market. However, the central bank's attitude indicates that the capital market is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, and the DR001 central rate in January is expected to be around 1.3% - 1.35% [44][49]. 3.3 December's financial data was better than expected, but the subsequent social financing and M2 growth rates may continue to decline - In December, new credit was 9100 billion yuan, better than expected. Corporate credit improved, but household credit was weak. The decline in household short - term and medium - long - term loans shows that the real estate market is still clearing, and households are repairing their balance sheets [52]. - December's new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, and the stock's year - on - year growth rate dropped to 8.3%. Although it was better than expected, there is still pressure for a decline in the subsequent social financing growth rate due to the high base of Q1 credit and the slowdown in government bond net supply [58]. - In December, the M2 growth rate rose to 8.5%. The increase was mainly due to factors such as bank foreign exchange settlement surplus and non - bank deposit base effects. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating a possible slowdown in deposit activation [59][65]. 3.4 Interest rates are approaching previous lows and may face disturbances, but the trend of shock repair is still expected to continue - After last week's repair, the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities (except ultra - long - term) are lower than those at the end of 2025. Although the market may face short - term disturbances as interest rates approach previous lows, the strong configuration willingness of banks and insurance companies is a clear signal of an interest rate peak [74]. - There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market. If the capital remains loose and government bond supply does not cause the expected impact, the 10 - year Treasury bond may break through the December low of 1.83%. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and participate in the trading opportunities of 10 - year policy - financial bonds [8][74].