国债周报：一篮子政策工具落地，债期以修复为主-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed divergent trends across different tenors. The 30 - year bond continued to be weak, while other tenors rebounded and repaired, with market sentiment warming up. At the beginning of the week, geopolitical risks overseas increased, global equity markets fluctuated more, and the domestic inflation data in December was lower than expected, leading to concerns about the economic recovery slope. Funds flowed into fixed - income assets for hedging, pushing up bond futures. In the second half of the week, the market focused on the expectation of potential policy intensification in China. On one hand, there were rumors that the central bank might guide broad credit through structural tools; on the other hand, some investors were worried about the supply pressure brought by the possible fiscal policy. The central bank and relevant departments announced a basket of monetary policy measures, including creating a special re - loan tool, extending the term of the inclusive small and micro - enterprise loan support tool, optimizing real - estate financial policies, and increasing open - market operations to maintain market liquidity [4]. - In the short term, the policy package helps to further reduce the real - economy financing cost and stabilize market expectations. For the bond market, the intensification of broad - credit policies may gradually increase the supply of long - term bonds and risk appetite, putting upward pressure on long - term interest rates. In the medium term, the loose policy dominated by structural tools is more like "targeted irrigation". With weak inflation and growth data, the overall loose tone remains unchanged, and the yield curve may steepen. The central bank said there is still "some room" for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. In the long term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the future direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions can expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates bottoming out and rising will increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures market had a mixed performance last week, with the 30 - year bond weak and others rebounding. Geopolitical risks and inflation data affected the market at the beginning of the week, and policy expectations dominated in the second half. The central bank launched a series of policies including a 2000 - billion - yuan special re - loan for science and technology innovation and technological transformation, extending the inclusive small and micro - enterprise loan support tool, optimizing real - estate policies, and increasing open - market operations [4]. - Looking forward, the policy package will lower financing costs and stabilize expectations. In the short - term, it may pressure long - term bond yields; in the medium - term, the yield curve may steepen. The central bank has room for further policy actions, and in the long - term, the bond market depends on economic recovery, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [7]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various liquidity - related data, including open - market operations (money投放, money回笼, and net money投放), medium - term lending facility (MLF) in terms of volume and price, reverse repurchase rates, deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and other interest - rate data, as well as data on LPR, deposit reserve ratios, and bond yields (domestic and US) [11][12][14] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [43][49][57]