Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-19 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including 拓荆科技, 中微公司, and 中芯国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion reflects strong confidence, with a capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [10][12]. - The AI sector is expected to grow significantly, with TSMC revising its AI processor revenue CAGR to a mid-high 50% [12][13]. - The demand for advanced packaging is high, with TSMC allocating 10%-20% of its 2026 Capex to this area, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [12][13]. - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [15][18]. - Micron's board member recently purchased shares worth approximately $7.8 million, indicating strong internal confidence in the company's future [18]. - The tight capacity and rising raw material costs are driving price increases in packaging services, with some companies raising prices by up to 30% [21][26]. Summary by Sections TSMC's Expansion and AI Growth - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 62.3% [10][12]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, reflecting a 37.9% year-over-year growth [10][12]. Storage Market Trends - The storage market is projected to see significant price increases, with DRAM and NAND products expected to rise substantially in early 2026 [15][18]. - The demand for storage is driven by AI and server capacity needs, leading to a historical high in supplier bargaining power [15][18]. Packaging Price Increases - The packaging sector is experiencing price hikes due to increased demand and rising raw material costs, with some companies reporting utilization rates nearing full capacity [21][26].