原木周报：苏鲁现货价格分化，原木未脱离震荡区间-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log futures have reached a reasonable range, and the spot price shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding. However, the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers overall [5] - The log futures are oscillating at a low level. The spot market price shows certain signals of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs left the ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5] - Demand: Neutral. From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to the previous week [5] - Inventory: Neutral. As of January 9, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.75% [5] - Valuation: Neutral. The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, within a reasonable range [5] - Investment View: The log futures have reached a reasonable range, and the spot price shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [5] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Not provided; Risk Concerns: Domestic demand situation [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: The log futures are oscillating at a low level. In the absence of a warming in the fundamentals, the log futures basically maintained a range - bound oscillation this week. The spot market price shows certain signals of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [8] - Futures Position: As of January 16, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,235 lots, a 2.3% increase compared to the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 11,876 lots, basically unchanged week - on - week [12] - Spot Price: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 680/740/850 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 710/760/940 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine in Jiangsu were 690/750/800 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 770/810/840 yuan per cubic meter [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs in China was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs in China was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. In November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.7876 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 19.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.50%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 16.7954 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.84% [21] - New Zealand Shipping and Shipment Volume: In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs left the ports in New Zealand, a month - on - month increase of 3 ships, and the total shipment volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase compared to 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 5 - 11, 2026, there were 13 pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China, an increase of 1 ship compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [25] - Inventory: As of January 9, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the North American wood inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 20.00%; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, the total inventory of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 1.96 million cubic meters, a 0.51% increase compared to the previous week; the total inventory of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 484,329 cubic meters, a 4.80% decrease compared to the previous week [33] - Outbound Volume: From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase compared to the previous week [35] - Downstream: As of January 16, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,170 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter; the processing profit in Shandong was - 68.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 6 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter [39]