地产行业报告：地产延续调整，等待销售边际企稳

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector continues to adjust, with expectations for marginal stabilization in sales [4] - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, while new housing starts fell by 20.4% to 58,770 million square meters [4] - New residential sales area in 2025 was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year [4] - In December 2025, the sales prices of residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with year-on-year declines widening compared to the previous month [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 126.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 472.22 million square meters, down 27.1% year-on-year [5] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 193.53 million square meters, down 29.5% year-on-year and 14.4% month-on-month [5] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 36.1% in average transaction area over the past four weeks [5] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 234.39 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date area of 630.72 million square meters, down 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 214.47 million square meters, down 15.5% year-on-year [6] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 31 new residential land supplies and 17 transactions, with an average transaction price of 4,346.25 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 1.18% [28] - The average transaction price for commercial land was 2,175.75 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 0.73% [28] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 3.52%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57% [31] - The real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.95 percentage points [31] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 0.74%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.56% [31]