瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for iron ore prices, advising attention to risk control. The port inventory continues to accumulate, with relatively sufficient spot resources but uneven variety distribution. The arrival of the first 200,000 - ton shipment of Simandou iron ore in China may put short - term pressure on ore prices. The I2605 contract's 1 - hour MACD indicator shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 794.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the position is 616,341 lots, down 32,521 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 11,895 lots, up 6,714 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 800.00 lots, down 700.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 104.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.69 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 857 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines is 853 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 59 yuan, up 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.55 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fines is 3.04, up 0.03. The estimated import cost is 855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 million tons, down 251.10 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) is 2,897.70 million tons, down 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 million tons, up 244.26 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 million tons, up 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) is 22.00 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 million tons, up 0.81 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 million tons, down 0.49 million tons. The BDI index is 1,567.00, up 35.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 19.56 US dollars/ton, up 0.30 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.45 US dollars/ton, up 0.23 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.51%, up 1.75 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.99%, up 1.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.01%, up 3.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 24.41%, up 7.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. Also, on January 17th, local time, US President Trump announced that starting from February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the US from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, and the tariff will be increased to 25% by June 1st [2].