瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests trading with a light position in a volatile market and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythm. The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand, with a slowdown in the inventory destocking rate. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 147,260 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan. The net position of the top 20 was -146,387 hands, down 8,847 hands. The position volume of the main contract was 411,331 hands, down 4,802 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts was -1,660 yuan/ton, down 11,320 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 27,698 hands/ton, up 240 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 3,740 yuan/ton, down 8,060 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars. The average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The average price of amblygonite was 16,650 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2%. The monthly production of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, various types of ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume was 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, up 0.45%. The cumulative sales volume was 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume was 300,000 vehicles, unchanged. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 80.07%, down 1.16%. The 40 - day average volatility was 68.23%, down 0.08%. The total call position was 99,286 contracts, up 18,245 contracts. The total put position was 143,609 contracts, up 7,890 contracts. The put - call ratio of the total position was 144.64%, down 22.8278%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options was 0.65%, down 0.0127% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a press conference to introduce the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles". In 2025, the comprehensive utilization volume of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. From January to December, the cumulative export of power and energy - storage batteries in China reached 305.0 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 17.9% of the annual cumulative sales. In 2025, the structure of China's automobile export enterprises was significantly optimized. In 2025, the national industrial added value above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decline of 3.83% at the close. The position volume decreased month - on - month. The spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day. On the fundamental side, smelters in the raw material end had sufficient raw material inventories, but their purchasing attitudes were cautious due to high ore prices. On the supply side, due to large market fluctuations, the upstream's shipping attitudes were divided, and upstream inventories had accumulated. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were sensitive to lithium prices, mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [2].