Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-19 08:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton commercial inventory is continuously rising, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The arrival of Brazilian cotton at ports increases the inventory. The downstream demand is generally weak, but the yarn price remains stable due to cost - driven factors. The growth in textile and clothing export in December supports the market. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and the market is expected to be in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 14,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 161,092 hands, an increase of 7,703 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 1,365 hands, an increase of 102 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 801,019 hands, down 21,592 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 14,778 hands, down 437 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,658 sheets, down 8 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 70 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,582 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,722 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,556 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,209 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.039 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,731,408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 13.35%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 13.35%, down 0.19%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.02%, an increase of 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.12%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 8, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 339,700 bales, reaching the annual high, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 156,100 bales, a 1% increase from the previous week and an 8% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].