利率周报（2026.1.12-2026.1.18）：12月进出口数据好于市场预期-20260119

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1% year - on - year, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5% year - on - year. Exports to Africa were outstanding, with year - on - year growth rates of 6.0%, 8.0%, 18.4%, and - 18.2% for the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and the US respectively. High - tech product exports reached 5.25 trillion yuan, up 13.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, import and export growth accelerated. The total import and export value was 4.26 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [2][98]. - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. Long - term bonds may experience a rebound from oversold conditions. Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and may be dominated by institutional behavior. Currently, long - term bond yields are at a one - year high, making long - term bonds attractive for investment. It is expected that the yield of the 30Y Treasury active bond will gradually return to around 2.2% in the first quarter. However, due to the strong stock market, trading desks may not buy ultra - long - term bonds in the short term. Major opportunities for ultra - long - term bonds await a significant decline in institutional expectations for the stock market and a reduction in policy interest rates [4][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - Import and Export Growth: In December 2025, the total import and export value was 4.26 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year, 0.9 percentage points higher than in November. Exports were 2.54 trillion yuan, up 5.2% year - on - year (a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from November), and imports were 1.73 trillion yuan, up 4.4% year - on - year (a 2.7 - percentage - point increase from November). Emerging markets played a significant role in driving exports, while exports to the US continued to be a drag. Core drivers of export growth included the release of Christmas - season demand and the trade transfer effect. High - end and mid - end manufacturing became the core growth engine, with strong performance in electromechanical and high - tech products, while labor - intensive products still faced pressure [11][13][23]. - Financial Statistics: At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. The annual increment of social financing scale in 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December 2025, M2, M1, and M0 increased by 8.5%, 3.8%, and 10.2% year - on - year respectively. The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.4% year - on - year [19]. - Policy Measures: On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced two policy measures: lowering interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and improving and expanding support for these tools. Specific measures included rate cuts, increasing quotas, and expanding the scope of support for different types of loans and tools [24][26]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data - Consumption: As of January 11, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars decreased by 32.0% and 40.0% year - on - year respectively. As of January 16, the 7 - day total national box office revenue decreased by 24.3% year - on - year. As of January 9, the total retail volume and total retail sales of three major household appliances decreased by 38.3% and 39.4% year - on - year respectively [25][30]. - Transportation: As of January 17, the 7 - day average migration scale index increased by 2.1% year - on - year. As of January 11, the number of civil aviation flights decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. As of January 16, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 1.2% year - on - year. As of January 11, postal express collection and delivery volumes, railway freight volume, and highway truck traffic decreased year - on - year [33][36]. - Industry: As of January 16, iron ore inventory increased by 10.0% year - on - year, while rebar inventory decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and float glass enterprise inventory increased by 20.9% year - on - year. As of January 8, the daily coal consumption of key power plants increased by 1.0% year - on - year. As of January 16, the apparent consumption of steel and rebar increased by 2.6% and 2.8% year - on - year respectively, while the apparent consumption of wire rods decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. As of January 14 - 15, the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, soda ash, and PVC decreased year - on - year [38][40][47]. - Real Estate: As of January 16, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.0% year - on - year. As of January 9, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 29.4% year - on - year. As of January 11, the land transaction area and land transaction price in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year [48][52][55]. - Prices: As of January 16, the average wholesale prices of pork, vegetables, and 6 key fruits showed different year - on - year and 4 - week - on - 4 - week changes. The average prices of northern port thermal coal, WTI crude oil, rebar, iron ore, and glass also had various year - on - year and 4 - week - on - 4 - week changes [58][63][70]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - Interest Rates: On January 16, overnight Shibor, R001, R007, DR001, DR007, IBO001, and IBO007 had different changes compared to January 12. Most Treasury bond yields declined. On January 16, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 6.8BP/4.4BP/3.7BP/0.1BP respectively compared to January 9. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year China Development Bank bonds had different changes compared to January 9. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds decreased compared to January 9. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased compared to January 9 [75][79][81]. - Foreign Exchange: As of January 16, 2026, the ten - year Treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.24%, 2.18%, 4.40%, and 2.89% respectively, with different changes compared to January 9. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on January 16 decreased compared to January 9 [87][90]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since 2026, the durations of medium - and long - term bond funds have generally decreased. On January 16, 2026, the estimated median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 3.3 years, a decrease of about 1.2 years compared to December 31, 2025. The estimated median duration of medium - and long - term credit bond funds was about 2.2 years, a decrease of about 0.3 years compared to December 31, 2025 [93][95]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. Pay attention to the possible oversold rebound of long - term bonds. It is recommended to focus on the band - trading opportunities of ultra - long - term bonds, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds to obtain coupons, and also pay attention to multi - asset investment opportunities [4][98].