——2025年四季度和12月经济数据点评兼债市观点：2025年经济前高后低特点显著-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in 2025 showed a significant "high in the front, low in the back" characteristic, with supply stronger than demand and external demand stronger than domestic demand. The GDP growth rate in Q1 was the highest at 5.4%, while that in Q4 dropped to the lowest at 4.5%. The main economic indicators were significantly differentiated, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the inflation environment showing no obvious improvement [2][8]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the added value of large - scale industries both increased. However, the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment widened, and the growth rates of its three major sub - items continued to decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods continued to fall, and the month - on - month growth rate was significantly weaker than the seasonal level [2][3]. - In the bond market, for interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened significantly. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on the rise. For convertible bonds, since the beginning of 2026, the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On January 19, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for Q4 and December 2025. The real year - on - year growth rate of GDP in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the real year - on - year growth rate for the whole year was 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to December was 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9% [1][7][10]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 Overall Economic Situation in 2025 - The economy showed a "high in the front, low in the back" trend. The industrial production growth rate continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, external demand was strong (export growth rate was 6.1% in 2025), while domestic demand was relatively weak (fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8% and social consumer goods retail sales growth rate was 3.7%). The GDP deflator was negative, and the inflation environment did not improve significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents also continued to decline [8][9]. 3.2.2 Added Value of Large - scale Industries in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in November. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.49%, up from + 0.44% in the previous month. Among the three major sectors, the year - on - year growth rate of the manufacturing industry increased significantly, while those of the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased [15]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Asset Investment in December 2025 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, with the decline expanding. The month - on - month growth rate was - 1.13%, also with an expanding decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased, and the single - month year - on - year growth rates were all weak [20][22]. 3.2.4 Social Consumer Goods in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 0.9%, falling for 7 consecutive months. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.12%, significantly lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. The growth rate of optional consumption slightly stabilized, while the growth rates of necessities and catering services continued to decline [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - Interest - rate bonds: Since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, and the long - end yield has been rising. Given the current loose capital situation and the differentiated fundamental trends, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield in 2026 will be 1.75%. - Convertible bonds: Since the beginning of 2026 (as of January 16), the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but more attention should be paid to the structure [4][34].