金货期业弘：乐观情绪下降，沪铜风险较高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the Greenland issue, the U.S. and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a rise in risk - aversion. The market sentiment is slightly optimistic, with the RMB surging to a new high and the U.S. dollar slightly falling. Non - ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and declined across the board. The copper market has high risks, and the upward pressure on copper prices is strong, with high - level volatility intensifying and significant uncertainty in the future [4]. - The Fed's policy uncertainty has increased, and the end - of - the - month Fed interest - rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market. The uncertainty in AI demand is relatively high [5]. Summary by Related Information Market Environment - Due to the Greenland issue, the U.S. and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, causing a rise in risk - aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and December's economic data generally met expectations. The market sentiment is slightly optimistic, with the RMB surging to a new high and the U.S. dollar slightly falling [4]. Copper Market Performance - Non - ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and declined across the board. Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) declined, London copper (LME copper) rose, and domestic spot copper prices fell. Today, SHFE copper opened higher and then fluctuated, with the spot price at a premium of 160 points over the futures price. The spot basis was at a discount of - 120 points, and spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot premium widened to $62, indicating good foreign - market spot demand. This week, the U.S. copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the SHFE copper inventory increased significantly, with poor spot demand. This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped significantly to a new low of $28, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to SHFE copper dropped to 7.8, and the premium of international copper over SHFE copper dropped significantly to 531 points, with the foreign - market ratio higher than the domestic - market ratio [4]. - Today, LME copper rebounded slightly and was trading around $12,900. SHFE copper opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 101,180. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE copper declined, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the spot market, domestic spot demand was poor, LME copper demand was average, but U.S. copper buying was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. The foreign - market ratio was stronger than the domestic - market ratio [5]. Copper Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5]. Market Outlook - The international situation remains tense, which provides some support for copper prices. However, the Fed's policy uncertainty has increased, and after the U.S. copper price broke through the previous high, market enthusiasm declined. The uncertainty in AI demand is relatively high, and there is strong pressure above the copper price. High - level volatility has intensified, and the uncertainty in the future market has increased significantly [5].