格林大华期货研究院专题报告：2025年全年生猪产业数据的相关思考

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - The year-on-year comparison of 2025 data has limited significance, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of pig supply is confirmed. There is a possibility that the pig inventory will decline in the first quarter of 2026, and it is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [12][13]. - In 2025, the contribution of pork to the supply increment was significantly enhanced, with an increase in pork production despite a decrease in pig slaughter compared to 2023 [12]. - The reduction of the sow inventory has been basically achieved, and it is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. - In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized, with pressure from both supply and demand; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September [17]. - In 2026, the pig price in the first quarter may rise first and then fall, the supply in the second quarter is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited space [19][21][22]. Summary by Directory 1. 'Year-on-year' has limited significance, focus on whether the supply inflection point is confirmed - Comparison of 2025 and 2023 data: The annual pig inventory in 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year but decreased by 1.05% compared to 2023; the annual pig slaughter increased by 2.4% year-on-year but decreased by 0.1% compared to 2023; the pork production increased by 4.1% year-on-year and 2.5% compared to 2023 [12]. - Attention to the inflection point of pig supply: The pig inventory at the end of 2025 decreased by 1.63% compared to the third quarter. It is expected that the pig inventory at the end of the first quarter of 2026 may be lower than that at the end of 2025. It is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [13]. - Sow inventory: The sow inventory decreased to 3961000 at the end of 2025, which is 101.6% of the normal reserve. It is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. 2. Review of previous report content 2026 January 19 Pig Futures Morning Report - Important information: The pig price continued to rise over the weekend due to snow and early downstream stocking. The national average pig price on the 18th was 13.17 yuan/kg, up 0.45 yuan/kg from last Friday. The sow inventory in October 2025 was 3990000. The number of new - born piglets increased from January to September 2025 (only decreased in July), and decreased in October and November, corresponding to a decrease in supply pressure from April [15]. - Market logic: In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [17]. - Trading strategy: Maintain a range - trading strategy. Pay attention to the pressure and support levels of different contracts [18]. 2026 January 3 Special Report 'Key Transactions in the Pig Industry in 2026: The Expected Difference in Capacity Reduction' - First quarter of 2026: The pig price may rise first and then fall. The supply will increase before March and decrease after April. The demand has seasonal characteristics, with a weakening of the southern pickled meat consumption increment. The pig price may be low - level volatile and strong before the Spring Festival and weak after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Second quarter of 2026: The pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling and stabilize, with an average price of 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [21]. - Second half of 2026: The pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited space. The upward space in the third quarter depends on the impact of winter diseases, and the pig price in the fourth quarter depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026. Pay attention to the sow inventory reduction rhythm, production efficiency, and slaughter weight [22][23].