有色金属海外季报：第一量子2025Q4铜产量同比减少8.1%至39.6万吨，2026年铜产量指引为37.5-43.5万吨

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - First Quantum's copper production in 2025 was 396,000 tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, but still within the revised guidance range of 390,000 to 410,000 tonnes [1] - The Kansanshi mine achieved an annual copper production of 181,000 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 10,000 tonnes from 2024, with the S3 segment contributing 25,000 tonnes [2] - The Sentinel mine's annual copper production was 189,000 tonnes, a decrease of 42,000 tonnes from 2024, primarily due to declining grades and rising maintenance costs [3] - Gold production in 2025 reached 152,000 ounces (4.73 tonnes), a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, exceeding the revised guidance [4] - Nickel production for 2025 was 23,000 tonnes, a decrease of 4.2%, with the Enterprise mine showing strong performance [7] Production and Operational Performance - Q4 2025 copper production was 101,000 tonnes, down 3.8% quarter-on-quarter and down 9.8% year-on-year [12] - Q4 2025 gold production was 37,000 ounces, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [4][12] - Q4 2025 nickel production was 9,000 tonnes, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.1% and a year-on-year increase of 125% [7][12] Future Guidance - For 2026, copper production is guided at 375,000 to 435,000 tonnes, gold at 175,000 to 200,000 ounces, and nickel at 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes [13] - Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $1 billion to $1.15 billion [15] Project Updates - The Cobre Panama copper project is in the exploration and mining plan phase, with significant government approvals and activities ongoing [9][10] - The processing of stockpiled ore is expected to produce approximately 70,000 tonnes of copper, with processing activities anticipated to start within three months of receiving official approval [10]