负反馈担忧扰动，煤焦期货低位运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: As of the week ending January 16, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1017 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons. An explosion at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia last Sunday raised concerns about downstream production cuts, increasing the market's negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures were suppressed to maintain a weak operation at a low level [5][36]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending January 16, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 769,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,000 tons (a new survey sample was added this period, resulting in a significant increase in the data). The total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1017 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. Overall, the coking coal market maintained a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have been fermented. In the future, the upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - National Coal Output: In 2025, China's raw coal output was 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. In December, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 440 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily output of 1.41 million tons [7][8]. - Coking Coal Price in Pingdingshan: On January 19, the coking coal prices in the Pingdingshan market remained stable. The price of main coking coal was 1,660 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1,490 yuan/ton, both being ex-works prices including VAT [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First-Class FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | -3.29% | -13.02% | -10.37% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First-Class Ex-warehouse) | 1,480 | 0.68% | 2.07% | -8.64% | -5.73% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,240 | 11.71% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 5.08% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1,580 | 2.60% | 4.64% | 6.04% | 6.04% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1,750 | 6.06% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: The report provides charts of coke inventories in 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant coke inventories, and total coke inventories from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16][18]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The report provides charts of mine-mouth coking coal inventories, all-sample independent coking plant coking coal inventories, and port coking coal inventories from 2021 to 2026 [22][23][24]. - Other Charts: The report also includes charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc [27][30][31]. Market Outlook - Coke: Due to the decrease in coke output and hot metal output, as well as the explosion at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the market negative feedback expectations have increased. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from fundamentals, the coke futures are expected to remain weak at a low level [36]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [36].