纯碱周报：新产能投放压力较大，震荡偏弱-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic soda ash market is stable with new orders received generally. With high supply due to new capacity and stable operation of enterprise equipment, and relatively stable downstream demand, the supply - demand situation of soda ash is loose. It is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain high in the near future, and the price will fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 1250 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash start - up changes, new capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with new orders received generally. Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 77.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons or 2.88%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a week - on - week increase of 2.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 157.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million tons or 0.15%. The pending orders of enterprises decreased slightly to over 12 days [1]. - The start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to remain high and stable this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The output of downstream float glass is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream procurement volume of photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the supply is expected to be generally stable this week, with the industry still having the expectation of inventory reduction. In the context of loose supply - demand of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the launch of new capacity exerts pressure. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 43 | 7 | 36 | 514 | Weekly | | Enterprise Inventory | Million tons | 157.5 | 157.27 | 0.23 | 0.15 | Weekly | | Weekly Output | Million tons | 77.53 | 75.36 | 2.17 | 2.88 | Weekly | | Dual - ton Profit of Combined Soda Process | Yuan/ton | - 44 | - 40 | - 4 | - 10 | Weekly | | Profit of Ammonia - soda Process | Yuan/ton | - 96.3 | - 57.85 | - 38.45 | - 66.46 | Weekly | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Float Glass | % | 71.38 | 71.96 | - 0.58 | - 0.81 | Weekly | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass | % | 66.31 | 67.04 | - 0.73 | - 1.09 | Weekly | [3] Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the basis in the East China market rebounded slightly [7]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 15, the domestic soda ash output was 77.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons or 2.88%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 36.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.24 million tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93 million tons. The theoretical profit (dual - ton) of combined - soda - process soda ash in China was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda - process soda ash was - 96.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46% [8]. Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic Glass: As of January 15, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 87,210 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 7.47%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 66.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, the overseas demand for photovoltaic modules gradually increases. The domestic supply is expected to become tight, and overseas orders are expected to improve. The short - term export volume of modules is expected to increase rapidly, and the module price is expected to rise. Most module enterprises plan to increase module production scheduling, with the estimated increase in production scheduling in January being 4 - 5GW, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The subsequent component quotations are expected to continue to rise, but the actual transactions are expected to continue to be in a game [11]. - Float Glass: As of January 15, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The output this week is expected to increase slightly [11]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 15, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million tons or 0.15%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.70 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons [13]. Position Analysis - As of January 16, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 793,270, a decrease of 2,857, and the short positions were 975,333, a decrease of 13,020. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].