避险需求给予金价支撑：贵金属周报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price rose and then oscillated at a high level, with New York gold oscillating around $4,600. In early January, silver rose more significantly than gold, and the gold - silver ratio dropped significantly. In the second half of the week, silver gradually weakened, and short - term funds had a strong willingness to settle. Currently, the ratio is around 50, the lowest in nearly 14 years, which will largely prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold. Short - term attention can be paid to the upward repair of the gold - silver ratio [6][22]. - In the long run, the main driving force for the rise of the gold price in this round comes from liquidity. Against the background of loose domestic and foreign macro - environments, liquidity has been rising continuously since December. Silver and non - ferrous metals have continued to rise, with a strong bullish atmosphere, and gold has also risen accordingly. In the short term, the macro - atmosphere has cooled, the willingness of funds to settle has increased, and liquidity has decreased, so the gold price may decline. However, the weakening of the market has led to an increase in the market's risk - aversion demand, which will support the gold price. In addition, attention can be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [6][22]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [10]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | January 16 | January 9 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,601.10 | $4,518.40 | 1.83% | | COMEX Silver | $89.95 | $79.79 | 12.73% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,032.32 | 1,006.48 | 2.57% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 22,483.00 | 18,731.00 | 20.03% | | US Dollar Index | 99.37 | 99.14 | 0.23% | | US Dollar Against Offshore RMB | 6.97 | 6.98 | - 0.15% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | N/A | 1.90 | N/A | | S&P 500 | 6,940.01 | 6,966.28 | - 0.38% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $59.30 | $58.78 | 0.88% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 51.15 | 56.63 | - 9.67% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 45.92 | 53.73 | - 14.55% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,085.67 | 1,064.56 | + 21.11 | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.98 | 492.16 | + 0.82 | [11] 2. Safe - Haven Demand Supports the Gold Price - Last week, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, but the gold price was strong. On the one hand, the market liquidity was good, and the bullish atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the global market weakened, and the risk - aversion demand increased [13]. - Last week, the macro - atmosphere cooled, the US stock market showed a high - level decline, and the VIX index increased [15]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 16, the total holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,578.65 tons, an increase of 21.93 tons compared with last week [17]. - Last week, silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio once dropped below 50. As silver prices fell from their highs, the gold - silver ratio bottomed out and rebounded [19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of the gold price and the change of the gold - silver ratio [22].