天然橡胶产业周报：基本面压力下随情绪波动回调，静待企稳-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of rubber has been significantly affected by recent macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the implementation of macro - easing policies from the central bank and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policies, the macro - sentiment has retreated, leading to a callback and differentiation in commodities [1][2]. - The price of Shanghai rubber RU is mainly determined by future demand, destocking expectations, and valuation, and is highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are in the pre - low - season rush to increase production, with sufficient raw materials. High inventory from increased imports in December and downstream inventory pressure will suppress prices. The future trend of rubber prices is expected to fluctuate with sentiment and remain in a wide - range shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment fluctuations impact the rubber market. The implementation of China's central bank's easing policies and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, have led to a retreat in macro - sentiment and a callback in commodities [1]. - For RU, domestic suspension of tapping, destocking of whole latex, future demand, and valuation expectations are key factors, while being highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are approaching the low - season, with sufficient raw materials and high inventory from imports suppressing prices. Downstream inventory pressure and uncertain domestic and foreign demand also affect prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range: The short - term reference shock range for RU2605 is 15,500 - 16,200, with important pressure at 16,000 and support around 15,600. The shock range for NR2603 is 12,500 - 13,200, with important support at 12,600 [15]. - Trend Judgment: With stable pre - festival stocking demand downstream and a neutral - to - loose supply upstream, rubber prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and policy stimuli, and will mainly fluctuate in the future [15]. - Strategy Suggestions: Adopt a neutral view on RU and NR, and be cautious at current price levels. Consider using hedging strategies such as protective options or spread strategies. Pay attention to the high - basis situation of RU and the low - spread expansion opportunity of NR - BR [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory, short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500), and sell call options (RU2605 - C16750) [29]. - Procurement Management: Enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans can buy rubber far - month futures (NR2603 and subsequent contracts) to lock in procurement costs and buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16250) [29]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The central bank announced a series of policies to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy. Tire enterprise开工 rates increased, and vehicle sales showed growth in some segments. Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased in 2025. There is a probability of an El Nino event in Q3 2026 [30][31]. - Negative Information: Geopolitical risks decreased, leading to a drop in oil prices and dragging down the chemical sector. The Fed may "pause rate cuts". South Korea's natural rubber imports decreased in 2025, and China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased, increasing raw - material supply expectations [32][33][34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor weather changes in production areas and the progress of tapping in high - latitude regions. Pay attention to the release of import and export data, port and social inventories, and the registration of whole - latex warehouse receipts. Track downstream tire pre - festival stocking and production - sales rhythms. Keep an eye on macro - sentiment and relevant economic data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: Last week, commodities continued to fluctuate and adjust, with rubber showing a relatively strong shock, reaching a high point before回调. RU performed relatively strongly [36]. - Fund Trends: The net short - position of Shanghai rubber increased, while the short - position of 20 - standard rubber decreased, and profits increased during the week [41]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Price Changes: The prices of some rubber varieties changed slightly, with some showing small increases or decreases [45][47]. - Delivery - Product Price Trends: The price trends of 20 - standard rubber delivery products are presented in relevant charts [49]. - Term Structure Analysis: The basis of whole latex is regressing, and the term structure of NR and the spread between different varieties and contracts show certain characteristics [50][58]. - External Market Conditions: The unilateral trends and term - spread structures of external markets such as Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - standard rubber are presented, and the internal - external spreads between RU and Japanese rubber and NR and Singapore rubber are analyzed [63][65][67]. - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Indicators: The virtual - to - physical ratio of rubber is higher than the historical average, and the bullish sentiment has declined, while the downstream tire sentiment has returned to neutral [74]. - Variety Spread Analysis: The spread between dark and light rubber has widened, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber has narrowed. The reasons are related to supply - demand and inventory situations [78][92]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw - Material Costs: Domestic production areas have suspended tapping, and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks has remained stable. In Thailand, raw - material prices have increased slightly due to the end of the harvesting season and competition for procurement [96]. - Processing Profits: The processing profits of domestic and imported rubber have shown different trends, with some showing slight decreases [103][106]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - Producing Country Output: The global natural - rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with different growth rates in each country [108]. - Domestic Import Situation: China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased in 2025 [111]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - Producing Country Total Demand: China's demand rebounded in November, and the total demand of most overseas main - producing countries also increased month - on - month [117]. - Tire Production and Sales: Tire enterprise开工 rates increased last week, mainly due to pre - festival stocking. Tire exports showed different trends in different segments, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation may affect future exports [119]. - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [127][128]. - Supporting Demand - Automobiles: Domestic automobile sales have been strong, but the inventory pressure has increased. The export of new - energy vehicles and semi - trailers has been strong [131]. - Supporting Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and construction machinery have increased, but the long - term growth of demand may be limited by the slowdown in fixed - asset investment [134]. - Overseas Tire Production: The production of Japanese tires has been stable, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [136]. - Overseas Tire Demand: US tire imports have increased despite weakening auto sales. European passenger - car production and sales have been stable [138]. - Other Rubber Product Demand: The PMI data in December showed an increase, and the开工 of other rubber downstream industries has further improved [144]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.52 million tons, and the 20 - standard rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly by 0.02 million tons [146]. - Social Inventory: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with changes in the inventory and turnover rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses [148].