瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the long - term, the raw material supply of nickel is expected to be tight, but the supply in the first quarter is expected to be relatively loose. The impact of supply - tightness needs to be determined by the conduction process [3]. - The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and the repair of profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to remain high. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and the ternary battery contributes a small increase in demand [3]. - The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly makes purchases on price dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3]. - Technically, with the decline in positions and price adjustments, there are large differences between long and short positions, and there is resistance above. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will mainly have wide - range adjustments in the short - term, and the price range to be concerned about is 136,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 142,320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 970 yuan/ton. The spread between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,792 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 798 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 83,210 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 14,515 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 61,562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 8,295 lots. The inventory of LME nickel is 285,732 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 48,180 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,530 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 13,098 tons, with no change [3]. - The number of warrants of Shanghai nickel is 41,798 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 187 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 145,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,450 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 146,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main NI contract is 3,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,420 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 187.95 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,273.38 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 46.39 million tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 38,300 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 1,761,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and Canada issued a joint statement. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, and the tax rate will be reduced from 100% to 6.1% [3]. - Trump said that starting from February 1st, tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries until "Greenland is completely acquired". The EU countries are considering imposing counter - tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to Europe, and Canada is considering sending troops to Greenland [3]. - The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairman has changed. Trump hopes that Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor. Reports say that Riddell of BlackRock has a growing call to run for the Fed Chairman, and he had a smooth meeting with Trump on Thursday [3].