铜铝周报：宏观氛围冷却，有色高位回落-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with the open interest continuously decreasing and strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, a rebound in the overseas US dollar index, and an increase in domestic market regulation expectations. In the industrial aspect, the near - month spread weakened, electrolytic copper stocks continued to accumulate, and the downstream showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, potentially providing support. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end still resisted high aluminum prices, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. As aluminum prices declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the macro - atmosphere cooled, causing most commodities to rise and then fall, which was a major reason for the decline in copper and aluminum prices. Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise, pressuring overseas - priced commodities; domestically, short - term market regulation increased, and market risk appetite declined [10]. 3.2 Copper - Quantity and Price Trends: Copper prices rose and then fell last week, with the open interest continuously decreasing, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [5][62]. - Copper Ore Shortage: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. It slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised [25]. - Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Stocks: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 327,500 tons, a weekly increase of 42,800 tons; on January 8, the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) was 679,800 tons, a weekly increase of 23,800 tons [27]. - Downstream Primary Sector: After the holiday, domestic major refined copper rod enterprises resumed production. With a slight decline in copper prices during the week, enterprises' willingness to purchase raw materials increased, and the raw material inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week. However, downstream enterprises still adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the finished - product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - Quantity and Price Trends: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. - Upstream Industry Chain: On January 16, the bauxite port inventory was 24.1076 million tons, an increase of 988,400 tons from the previous week and 6.2076 million tons higher than the same period in 2025. Last week, due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, alumina and aluminum prices both declined, and the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44][45]. - Low Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 749,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from before the holiday; on January 8, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 496,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous week. The overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories continued to diverge last week [50]. - Downstream Primary Sector: As aluminum prices fell from their highs last week, the replenishment willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas rebounded. On January 8, the aluminum rod inventory was 121,600 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal accumulation period, and high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand [56][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: The decline in copper prices was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and increased short - term capital closing - out willingness. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' replenishment willingness increased, potentially providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: The decline in aluminum prices was due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end resisted high aluminum prices, but as prices declined, downstream replenishment willingness increased, providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62].