铜：强预期对峙弱现实，高位震荡格局未改

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Last week, the copper market oscillated at a high level and broke through the previous high in the game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality." The macro - situation is divided at home and abroad, and the fundamentals show a typical multi - empty tug - of war. The copper price is still in an oscillating pattern. Looking forward, the copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fluctuation risk may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro - situation: There is a differentiation between domestic and overseas. Domestic active fiscal and monetary policies boost market confidence, while overseas, the Federal Reserve signals a suspension of interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical disturbances create a complex background. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the strike crisis at Chilean copper mines continues, and the raw material shortage pattern remains. On the demand side, high prices continuously suppress spot purchases, and the market rationally revises the expectation of copper consumption in emerging fields such as AI. Although there is policy - driven stocking demand in the photovoltaic field, the overall consumption shows "weak reality" characteristics. - Future trend: The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, with potential for intensified fluctuation risks. "Strong expectations" such as long - term supply bottlenecks, global green - transition demand, and a macro - loose environment provide bottom support, while "weak reality" pressure from high - price negative feedback, geopolitical and overseas - policy uncertainties will continue to cause disturbances [2]. Attention Factors - Attention should be paid to the latest Sino - US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change Amount | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 101,770 | 100,330 | 1,440 | 1.44% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 110 | - 45 | - 65 | - 144.44% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward - spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 46.4 | - 45 | - 1.4 | - 3.11% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 102,770 | 101,500 | 1,270 | 1.25% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 143,575 | 138,975 | 4,600 | 3.31% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 213,515 | 180,543 | 32,972 | 18.26% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper (LME Copper 3), and the Shanghai - London ratio (unadjusted for exchange rate) through relevant charts, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents relevant data on copper concentrate forward - spot prices, crude copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price - change trends, and the main - market refined - scrap price difference through multiple charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12][13][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded - area premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse - receipt bill - of - lading premiums through relevant charts, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [21][23][30]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper spot inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [32].