棕榈油期货：区间震荡，重心上移

Report Summary Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 12 - 18, 2026, palm oil futures and cash prices oscillated weakly in sync. The main contract P2605 declined by 0.09% for the week. The core drivers were the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory month - on - month and the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 policy suppressing the market, while improved exports and seasonal production cuts provided support. The lack of resonance between domestic and foreign markets led to range - bound oscillations [1]. - In December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased month - on - month but was still higher than expected, and inventory increased. Indonesia cancelled the B50 policy, resulting in insufficient boost to biofuel demand and suppressing prices. However, January is a season of seasonal production cuts, with SPPOMA data showing a 20.49% month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 10 days of January, providing support [1]. - In the short term, palm oil is supported by futures and stocking demand, but the pressure of inventory accumulation limits the upside, and high - price transactions are sluggish. The price center of palm oil is expected to move up, and the recommended operation is mainly range trading [1]. - Factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Palm oil futures and cash prices oscillated weakly from January 12 - 18, 2026. The main contract P2605 fell 0.09% for the week. The market was affected by multiple factors such as inventory changes, policy cancellation, and seasonal production cuts, showing range - bound oscillations [1]. - In the short term, there are both supporting and restrictive factors for palm oil prices. The price center is expected to move up, and range trading is recommended [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations on January 16, 2026. For different shipping months (February - May), the import costs are 8738, 8851, 8838, and 8809 yuan respectively, and the corresponding on - disk profits are - 106, - 219, - 206, and - 191 yuan [2]. Supply Situation Analysis - Although there are figures related to palm oil supply such as buy - ship quantity statistics, expected arrival volume, and Malaysian palm oil production, no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [7][8][12]. Demand Situation Analysis - There are figures related to Chinese palm oil liquid import quantity and Malaysian palm oil export quantity, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [12][14]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure about the on - disk profit of the May shipping schedule of palm oil, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [15].