2025年12月金融数据点评：企业部门信贷表现好于居民部门

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]