Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-19 09:25Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Currently, there are still many positive factors in the A-share market. Although many economic indicators declined further in December, industrial production grew steadily driven by industries representing new productive forces such as aerospace and artificial intelligence, weakening the negative impact of the decline in other economic indicators on the market. The aerospace and artificial intelligence-related listed companies have the largest weight in the CSI 500, significantly boosting the index. With the demand for foreign exchange settlement of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. The weakening of the US dollar value due to overseas risk events and the strong RMB exchange rate support the expectation of loose monetary policy in Q1, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. The spring market is still advancing. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4688.8, up 10.2; IF sub-main contract (2601) was at 4732.8, up 9.2. IH main contract (2603) was at 3073.8, down 3.6; IH sub-main contract (2601) was at 3076.4, down 2.0. IC main contract (2603) was at 8148.0, up 90.6; IC sub-main contract (2601) was at 8281.8, up 64.2. IM main contract (2603) was at 8003.0, up 36.4; IM sub-main contract (2601) was at 8230.0, up 20.8. - IF - IH current month contract spread was 1656.4, up 11.6; IC - IF current month contract spread was 3549.0, up 47.8. IM - IC current month contract spread was -51.8, down 49.8; IC - IH current month contract spread was 5205.4, up 59.4. IM - IF current month contract spread was 3497.2, down 2.0; IM - IH current month contract spread was 5153.6, up 9.6. - IF current quarter - current month was -44.0, up 1.8; IF next quarter - current month was -99, down 51.8. IH current quarter - current month was -2.6, down 0.4; IH next quarter - current month was -34.6, down 31.0. IC current quarter - current month was -133.8, up 24.6; IC next quarter - current month was -257.8, down 88.2. IM current quarter - current month was -227.0, up 19.0; IM next quarter - current month was -387, down 128.6. [2] Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were -43,401.00, down 1559.0; IH top 20 net positions were -18,009.00, down 102.0. IC top 20 net positions were -36,994.00, down 1257.0; IM top 20 net positions were -52,814.00, up 1252.0. [2] Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4734.46, up 2.6; IF main contract basis was -45.7, up 6.2. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 3075.9, down 3.8; IH main contract basis was -2.1, down 1.2. The CSI 500 was at 8288.0, up 55.3; IC main contract basis was -140.0, up 24.1. The CSI 1000 was at 8265.7, up 32.9; IM main contract basis was -262.7, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 27,322.16, down 3243.08; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 27,315.37, up 127.86. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3665.73, up 110.95; reverse repurchase (maturity amount, operation amount, billion yuan) was -861.0, up 1583.0. - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -486.02 and -424.12. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 64.47, up 20.13; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.318, down 0.007. - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2601) was 82.00, down 11.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 16.22, down 2.26. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2601) was 94.40, down 18.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 16.22, down 2.26. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index (%) was 10.69, down 0.34; trading volume PCR (%) was 55.22, down 2.60; open interest PCR (%) was 67.65, up 0.63. [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A - shares score was 6.50, up 2.00; technical analysis score was 6.40, up 2.10; capital analysis score was 6.50, up 1.90. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, GDP grew 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased 5.9% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485,186 billion yuan, down 3.8% year - on - year. Private fixed asset investment decreased 6.4% year - on - year. In December, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 1.13% month - on - month. - In 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year. New commercial housing sales area decreased 8.7% year - on - year, and sales volume was 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place decreased 13.4% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national real estate climate index was 91.45. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 45,136 billion yuan, up 0.9% year - on - year. In 2025, it was 501,202 billion yuan, up 3.7% year - on - year. In 2025, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate in China was 5.2%, and in December, it was 5.1%. - Most A - share major indices closed higher, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. Among the four broad - based indices, the CSI 500 was the strongest. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. A - share trading volume declined significantly. Over 3,500 stocks rose. Most industry sectors rose, with basic chemicals and petrochemical sectors rising sharply and the computer sector leading the decline. - Overseas, on January 17, the US imposed tariffs on 8 European countries over the Greenland issue, increasing market distrust of US dollar assets and weakening the US dollar index. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed a further decline in Q4 GDP, but the annual 5% economic growth target was still achieved. In December, except for the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, fixed investment, retail sales, and exports declined compared with November. [2] Key Data to Focus On - January 20, 9:00: China's 1 - year and 5 - year LPR quotes for January - January 22, 23:00: US November PCE and core PCE - January 23, 16:15 - 17:30: Preliminary January SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI values for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK - January 23, 22:45: Preliminary January SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI values for the US [3]