银行行业月报：结构性降息，社融增速小幅回落-20260119

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - In December, new loans increased by 910 billion yuan, which is 80 billion yuan less than the same month last year, reflecting a divergence in financing between households and enterprises [14][15]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is 600 billion yuan less than the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in government bonds [6][9]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][10]. Loan Data - By the end of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14]. - Household financing demand remains weak, with a reduction of 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise financing expanded significantly, driven by policy support [15]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate fell to 3.8%, down 1.1% from the previous month [19][20]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates of listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20]. - The current dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20].