玉米淀粉日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The FOB price at northern ports has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, leading to a rise in the spot price and an expansion of the price difference between Northeast and North China corn. The domestic aquaculture demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [2][5]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - Futures Disk Data: For example, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,241, down 41 with a decline rate of 1.83%; the trading volume is 576, an increase of 14,300.00%; the open interest is 428. Different contracts have different price, trading volume, and open - interest changes [1]. - Spot and Basis Data: In terms of corn, the prices in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2,150, 2,200, and 2,350 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. For starch, the prices of enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2,730, 2,700, and 2,700 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. There are also data on basis, spreads between different contracts, and cross - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn report is bearish, but the supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port FOB price has declined, while the Northeast corn price is strong. The North China corn price has risen due to reduced supply. The wheat - to - corn price difference is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [2][5]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn price has risen, and the Northeast starch price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the corn - starch spot price difference is low. The starch spot price is strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Short - sell 03 corn with a light position and short - sell 03 starch at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Start reverse arbitrage for 35 starch [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs, such as the northern port corn FOB price graph, corn 05 contract basis graph, corn 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 05 contract basis graph, and corn starch 05 contract spread graph, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].