焦炭日报：短期偏震荡对待-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term oscillatory outlook for coke, with a low - buying strategy [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. With the continuous increase in the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke during the seasonal inventory accumulation period, the overall supply - demand is weak. Although the iron - water output of downstream steel mills is relatively stable and there is still demand resilience in the short - term, the medium - and long - term demand shows a downward trend due to the expanding decline in real estate investment growth. Considering the overall warm macro - atmosphere and the implementation of domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, the coke market is expected to be mainly oscillatory in the short - term [3] Details from Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of January 16, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons, the inventory of steel mills increased to 650.33 tons, the port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a near 7 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton, with different average profits in various regions. Coke has started the first round of price increase [1] - Downstream Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.48%, and the daily average iron - water output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, an increase of 3.53 tons year - on - year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - The inventory of coking coal in coal mines decreased by 7.66%, while the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal in ports continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the previous year's level [2] Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year. The national real estate development investment was 82788 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% from the previous year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 88101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 93117 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% from the previous year [2] Main Logic - The supply - demand pattern of coke is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the supply - demand is weak. The iron - water output of downstream steel mills is relatively stable, with short - term demand resilience, but the medium - and long - term demand continues to decline. The macro - atmosphere is warm, and after the domestic reserve requirement ratio cut, the market awaits further policy guidance. It is expected that coke will be mainly oscillatory in the short - term. The previous low of the main coke contract is 1625.5, and the previous high is 1817.5. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low and the pressure at the previous high [3]