纯碱日报：短期震荡偏弱-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly weak in the short term" [1] Core View of the Report - Despite short - term support from news and a slight recovery in rigid demand, due to the intensifying contradiction of supply surplus in the industry, the recommended strategy is to go short on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, with slightly stronger intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term shockingly weak signal. The trading volume decreased by 28,783 lots and the open interest decreased by 38,955 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1186, and the closing price was 1192, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was running stably. Enterprise equipment was adjusted with production declines at Jiangsu Jingshen and short - term shutdown at Lianyungang Alkali Industry, leading to a narrow decline in overall output. Downstream demand was average, with customers purchasing on - demand at low prices. There was a lack of substantial support in the short - term market, and prices were adjusted stably [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, up 12,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 89.47%, up 1.32% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, down 14,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, down 16,400 tons month - on - month [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points month - on - month. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash and the gradual release of new capacity have led to a continuous increase in overall production. The slowdown of short - term glass cold - repair has slightly restored the rigid demand for soda ash. With continuous losses and the boost of last week's news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying supply - surplus contradiction in the industry, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]